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CONTENTS
Prof. Antonov A., Medkov V. EXPECTED PARAMETERS OF DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE
OF RUSSIA: 2000-2010-2020-2030-2040-2050. TREND ANALYSIS
Prof. Azroyants E.
FROM MICRO- AND MACRO- TOWARDS MEGA-SOCIUM.
ESTIMATED PROGRESS IN PROCESS OF A HUMANITY
GLOBALIZATUION IN XXI CENTURY. TREND ANALYSIS
Prof. Balsevitch V.
DYNAMICS OF SOCIAL EFFICIENCY IN PHYSICAL TRAINING OF RUSSIAN CHILDREN, TEENAGERS, YOUTH
Batyaeva A., Aukutsionek S.
EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES IN AN INVESTMENT
ACTIVITY OF THE RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES FOR A LONG TERM PROSPECT
Prof. Bestuzhev-Lada I.
RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN
STATE OF CULTURE INSTITUTIONS. EXPERT QUESTIONNAIRE
Prof. Breyev B.
SUSPOSED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT
STRUCTURE RF IN 2001-2010. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND
AN INTERROGATION OF EXPERTS
Breyeva E. DrSc.
CHILDREN OF RUSSIA TODAY AND 10 YEARS LATER. TREND
ANALYSIS AND PANEL INQUEST
Bunchuk K. , Vasilansky I., Matushkin V.
RUSSIA IN 2000-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES
THE CONSCIOUSNESS OF PEOPLE
Dobrocheev O., Sidelnikov Y. Ph.D.
INTEGRATION AND DESINTEGRATION PROCESSES IN EUROPE
WITHIM THE FRAMEWORK OF POLITICAL GLOBALISATION
Dobrocheev O.
DUNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THRESHOLD RESTRIC-
TIONS OF DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL - POLITICAL OF CRISES
IN THE MILITARIANS
Evstigneev V.
FINANSICAL SYSTEM IN RUSSIAN -TYPE TRANSITION
ECONOMY: FROM UNOBSERVABLE RISKS TO RISK TRANS-
PARENCY. OPERATIONS ANALYSIS
Prof. Fedotov A. Ph.D.
CONTOLLABLE WORLD MODEL FOR 2001-2025
CONSTRUCTED BY GLOBALISTICS
Florov V.
ASTRONAUTICS, COSMIC INDUSTRY OF THE EARTH: THE
FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY
Gen. Frolov I., Prof. Zhouravlev A., Yahontova E. Ph.D.
RUSSIA 2001-2010: SECURITY (MILITARY - POLITICAL
ASPECTS)
Prof. Ghirusov E.
RUSSIA 2010: EXPECTED AND ESIRABLE CHANGES IN A
ENVIRONMENT SITUATION. TREND ANALYSIS
Golbert V.
TO NEW PARADIGM OF A CIENCE ( normative approach)
Prof. Kartashova K.
RUSSIA 2001-2050: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN
URBANISATION PROCESS. EXPERTS QUESTIONNAIRE
Prof. Khwastunow R., Vedmedenko L. Ph.D.
RUSSIA 2000 - 2030: NEW BOUNDARIES IN THE CARE OF
PUBLIC HEALTH (The expert prognosis on a perspective)
Prof. Kochurov B.
RUSSIA IN 2001-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES
IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE
Konstantinovskaya L. Ph.D., Prof. Afanasiev S., Prof. Feldman V.,
Prof. Mikhailov A., Khlystov A. Ph.D., Valchuk T. Ph.D., Kharin E. Ph.D.
RUSSIA 2001-2010. SAFETY: TREATMENT OF THE SPACE.
TREND ANALYSIS
Prof. Kudrin B.
ELECTRIC POWER BALANCE IN RUSSIA (2001-2010):
EXPECTED AND DESIRED CHANGES
Prof. Kuzin V.
ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AND
PSYCHICAL STRUCTURES OF HUMAN BEING.
PROBLEMATIQUE OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL FORECASTING
Prof. Kuznetsov I., Kozerenko E. Ph.D.
INTELLECTUAL MULTILIGUAL SYSTEM ON EXTENDED
SEMANTIC NETWORKS
Prof. Levitsky M.
RUSSIAN COUNTRY SCHOOLS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF
THE XXI CENTURY PERSPECTIVE.TREND ANALYSIS
Prof. Mironenko. N.
REALITIES AND MYTHS OF TOURISM: THEORETICAL
MODELS AND PRACTICE
Nemirovski L. Ph.D.
PROBLEMS OF SHAPING THE ESOTERIC SPACE
Prof. Osipov Y.
FROM THE MICRO AND MACROECONOMICS
TO THE MEGAECONOMY (GEOECONOMY)
Podgornaya. L. Ph.D.
POSSIBLE WAYS OF ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION MINIMIZATION BY CONTROL FACILITIES AT FEDERAL AND
REGIONAL LEVELS. (Estimation of Prognoses on the basis of
interrogation of the experts)
Prof. Poliakov V.
RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS IN EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICAL
ARENA IN 2001-2010 YEARS
Pronina E., Grishayeva N., Kolesnikova E.
ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN EDUCATION OF
RUSSIIA (On the base of researches carried out in the secondary
schools of Moscow)
Pronina E.
ESTIMATED AND DESIRED TENDENCIES OF GROWING
OF FEDERALISM IN RUSSIA (Based on the results of expert poll)
Prourzin L.
CRITICAL POINTS OF EVOLUTION HUMANITY: CENTURY
XXI. TREND ANALYSIS
Shahmansky G. PhD., Alexandrov G. PhD., Smolyaninov V. PhD.
WAYS TO INCREASE OF EFFICIENCY FOR FORECAST
OF NATURE DISASTROUS AND ACCIDENTS
Smolyaninov V. PhD.
WAYS TO INCREASE THE UNO EFFICIENCY.
(The normative forecast)
Travkin S. Ph.D.
NEXT DECADE POSSIPLE IMPACTS OF REIONAL AND
INTERNATIONAL NET-STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS.
(Simulation analysis and expert judgements)
Prof. Yakovets Y.
EURASIAN CIVILISATION: CHANGES IN GEOPOLITICAL
SPACE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF XXI CENTURY.
ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS AND THE QUESTIONNAIRES OF
EXPERTS OPINION
Prof. Yuriev A.
RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED CHANGES IN POLITICAL
ONCSIOUSNESS OF RUSSIAN ELECTORATE.
(Electors Questionnaire)
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Prof. Bestuzhev-Lada I.
FUTURES STUDIES: PROBLEMS AND DECISIONS.
The antique tradition learns us, that all alive on ground passes cycles of birth, youth, maturity and old age. And then come death and again birth. Ancient named it as Gold, Silver, Bronze and Iron ages. Told completely concerns to a history of futures studies (FS) in the 2-nd half of •• century.
The Gold Age of classics modern FS, in our opinion, has opened in 1952 by the book of R. Jungk "The Future has already begun" and was finished in 1970 by the book of A. Toffler "The Future Shock". This history, as always, had prehistory. To not speak about thousands years of eschatology, utopia, philosophy of a history and also about "early futurology" in the 2-nd half •1• - 1-st half •• centuries, we shall mention only articles in 20-s by V. A. Basarov-Rudnev, where a principle of the problem-goal approach in FS for the first time was formulated, and also about articles in 40-s by J. Bernal and N. Wiener, where the idea of the revolution in science and technology was put forward which has served a basis of ideology modern FS. But actually history began, certainly, in 50-s as the birth of technological forecasting and has terminated in 60-s by development of the theory, methodology and technology of development of the exploratory and normative forecasting completely kept till now without any essential changes and additions. The names of titans of Gold Age are well-known: R. Jungk, T. Gordon, O. Gelmer, B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell, E. Jantsch, O. Flechtheim, G. Kahn, J. Mc Hall, F. Polak, J. Galtung, A. Peccei, A. Toffler etc. They have not become outdated and to this day.
The Silver Age has opened in 1972 by the book "Limits of growth" D. and D. Medows with the co-authors, which has included all first ten reports to the Club of Rome which has opened the whole special FS direction - globalistics (the analysis and the forecast of development of a global problem situation of modernity), and was finished to the beginning 80-s by the books of H. Henderson and number of other authors opened one more FS direction - alternativistics (way of transition to a civilization alternative existing and capable successfully to cope with global problems of modernity).
The Bronze Age has opened in 1982 by last sensational FS bestseller - book "Megatrends" of J. Naisbitt and was finished to 90-s by transition in a new qualitative condition existing till now. It is possible to tell, that FS send as though on a high plateau, but without the further rise. Now each year leaves many books which are at all not making a concession on quality of the contents to the best products of Gold, Silver and Bronze Ages, but any more not being more any sensation, is like "Future Shock", "Limits" or "Megatrends". Probably, it really is Iron Age. How many years it will be prolonged? And than will be finished? Gradual dying , how it has taken place with many by others interdisciplinary directions of researches? Or birth of new Gold Age with the new theory, methodology, technology, with new sensations in opening the future?
The technological forecasting essentially refuses in similar cases any predictions. It offers to reveal becoming ripe problems and possible ways of their decisions.
What problems stand today before FS?
First. The audience psychologically is tired from apocalyptic pictures of the future, which open exploratory forecasts. Yes, probably, the mankind will not go through ••1 century - probably, even of the first two - three decades of it but only at the observable tendencies. This very important scientific opening, which, in our opinion, quite would deserve the Nobel premium, if these premiums were given out not only for researches of the last and present. But it cannot be repeated indefinitely, not revealing ways of an exit from crisis. Psychological effect "tearing away the information" differently turns out and FS begins to work empty.
Second. The audience psychologically is tired from iridescent pictures of the future, which open the normative forecasts. Yes, everyone know that to smoke harmfully. Even more harmful alcohol and stronger drugs. Well, also what? We see growth of consumption of drugs, despite of all reasoners. Precisely as everyone know, that the squandering in consumption of energy, pollution of an environment increasing misbalance of all system of geobalances, on which the mankind keeps, threat of distribution and application of the weapon of a mass defeat (is especial microbiological), the triumphal offensive of anticulture against actually culture - that all this is very bad. A little that, is disastrous for mankind. Well, also what? Today, in 2000, we are as far from an alternative civilization, as well as in 1979, when this concept only was born. And how many years there is possible to try by naked words to put mankind into paradise?
Third. The scientific FS toolkit is developed, basically, in 60-th. Since then anything essential has not increased. Well, also what? We know many sciences and interdisciplinary directions, where the scientific toolkit is created even earlier and is used without essential changes till now. Nevertheless, successes are quite real. What is necessary in FS to achieve that itself under the same conditions?
On our sight, it is necessary to pay attention first of all to three possible "points of growth".
1. Not the secret, that the majority of the decisions till now is accepted intuitively, voluntarily. At first decision, then problem with consequences - common algorithm is those. Here role of FS is excluded initially. But even when the decision prepares beforehand, at first develop the decision, and then invite futurist. Naturally, the last appears in a role criticism, opponent, antagonist of the first. Certainly, the conflict is inevitable. Also occurs some kind of semi-annihilation: the "prevision maker" get rid, and the "decision maker" remains alone with consequences of the decision, planned by him.
It is necessary to try to find common language between the developers of the forecasts and decisions. To not get tired to remind that any voluntary decision is always connected to excessive risk. And in modern conditions the risk even more often is risk of accident. The preparation of the decision should begin with preliminary "weighing" of its possible consequences. That makes essence of technological forecasting. At such approach the FS receive additional stimulus of development.
2. Till now problems, goals and possible decisions of a global, regional and local level in " the literature on the future" are represented mostly unsystematically, that considerably reduces such efficiency of the information. It is necessary to make accent on construction "of a tree of problems", "of a tree of the goals", "of a tree of the decisions" at all levels, from global down to local. Can be, such forecasting information will allow to lift FS on more high level.
3. The experience shows, that the disconnection of the forecasts too considerably reduces their efficiency. Can be, it is expedient more attention to give to monitoring - periodic analysis of trends and interrogations of the experts. To develop some kind of dynamic lines of the forecasts, to see their evolution and to bring in the appropriate corrective amendments. It is possible to expect, as thus level FS will be essentially raised.
In sector of social forecasting in Institute of sociology Russian academy of sciences in 1991-95 and 1996-2000 on this technique two research projects were realized: "Prospects of transformation of Russia. Experts - Scenario monitoring" and "Estimated and desired changes in Russia system of national education". The experience has shown, that it is enough effectively. In 1999 the Organizational committee of the International Future Academy Research was created. It is supposed, that it will be not alternative to a World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation and other futurists associations but rather some kind of them "affiliated organization". No any conferences or seminars, only joint research projects with information interchange through fax, e-mail, Internet, teleconference. First such project "the Countries of the world in 2001-2010: problems and decisions" is already started for January - June, 2000.
There can be, it is too one of ways of removing FS on more high level of development?
HISTORY OF ACADEMY
The Forecasting Academy (Research of the Future) is one from affiliated organizations of the World Federation of Researches of the Future (status II public organizations UNO and status In advisory organizations of UNESCO). The academy of forecasting is created under the initiative of five associations and center and integrates the experts, which Study perspectives of development of various processes and phenomena.
The academy of Forecasting leans in the activity on the concept of technological forecasting (problem-target approach in researches of the future), formulated in 1924-27years. B.A.Bazarov-Rudnev and then, irrespective of him(it), in an extremity 50-th and beginning of the 60-th years O.Gelmer, T.Gordon, D.Bell, A. De Guvenel etc. future-contributors. The academy develops prognostic traditions incorporated in transactionses N.D.Kondratiev, V.I.Vernadskiy,K.E.Ziolkovskiy, A.P.Sorokin,L.A.Chigevskiy etc.
In Russia three attempts of creation public (outside of State) of scientific organization of the theorists and practic of forecasting were undertaken. The first attempt - 1966-70 years. - the Soviet association of scientific forecasting was created which collected monthly - seminars with hundreds participants, issue a number of issuings etc. She(it) was destroy in 1970-71years., and it the chiefs destroy. The second attempt began by informal seminars in the Moscow Air institute, that has reduced in creation in a 1976 of a Commission on scientific and technical forecasting in one from committees of All-Union Advice(council) of scientific and technical companies (VSNTO).
In a 1979 the commission was developed in Committee on scientific and technical forecasting and development of comprehensive programmes of scientific and technical progress VSNTO (Then Advice(council) of scientific and engineering companies USSR) in structure more than ten commissions: under the theory and methodology of forecasting, on social, economic, ecological, global problems of forecasting. Formally Committee exists until now, and actually USSR is paralysed by a ruin.
The third attempt began in 1988-90 years. By seminars of Association of assistance of the World Federation of Researches of the Future (President . I.V.Bestuzhev-Lada, academician of the Russian Academy of Science) and Association the prognosises and cycles (President - professor U.V.Yakovez) also was finished in 1996 by cooperation of these organizations with Research Center " Applied prognostic " and " by Association of the financial analysts and forecastings" (Director of centre and president of Association - member of MAI U.V.Sidelnikov), with " by Center Cocil of Values " (director - professor - M. Mazkovskiy), with International Fund N.D.Kondratiev (president - academician of WOUNDS L.I.Abalkin) and with St.-Petersburg humanitarian and politicial by centre "Strategy" (president - professor. A. Sungurov).
Now the cooperation with Academy of Forecasting (Researches of the Future) is entered by(with) other known scientific and public organizations of Russia.
Today Academy of Forecasting works on forty main directions of scientific forecasting and represents cooperation of the experts in an orb of forecasting. Including in Academy of forecasting exists and esoteric a direction of researches of the future.
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