INTERNATIONAL FUTURES RESEARCH ACADEMY.

RUSSIAN FUTURES STUDIES ACADEMY.

FIRST JOINT RESEARCH PROJECT: 01.01 - 30.06.2000.

"A COUNTRY AND THE WORLD 2001-2010: PROBLEMS AND DECISIONS".

ACADEMY


LAI


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CONTENTS



Prof. Antonov A., Medkov V.

EXPECTED PARAMETERS OF DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE OF RUSSIA: 2000-2010-2020-2030-2040-2050. TREND ANALYSIS


Prof. Azroyants E.

FROM MICRO- AND MACRO- TOWARDS MEGA-SOCIUM. ESTIMATED PROGRESS IN PROCESS OF A HUMANITY GLOBALIZATUION IN XXI CENTURY. TREND ANALYSIS


Prof. Balsevitch V.

DYNAMICS OF SOCIAL EFFICIENCY IN PHYSICAL TRAINING OF RUSSIAN CHILDREN, TEENAGERS, YOUTH


Batyaeva A., Aukutsionek S.

EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES IN AN INVESTMENT ACTIVITY OF THE RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES FOR A LONG TERM PROSPECT


Prof. Bestuzhev-Lada I.

RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN STATE OF CULTURE INSTITUTIONS. EXPERT QUESTIONNAIRE


Prof. Breyev B.

SUSPOSED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE RF IN 2001-2010. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND AN INTERROGATION OF EXPERTS


Breyeva E. DrSc.

CHILDREN OF RUSSIA TODAY AND 10 YEARS LATER. TREND ANALYSIS AND PANEL INQUEST


Bunchuk K. , Vasilansky I., Matushkin V.

RUSSIA IN 2000-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES THE CONSCIOUSNESS OF PEOPLE


Dobrocheev O., Sidelnikov Y. Ph.D.

INTEGRATION AND DESINTEGRATION PROCESSES IN EUROPE WITHIM THE FRAMEWORK OF POLITICAL GLOBALISATION


Dobrocheev O.

DUNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THRESHOLD RESTRIC- TIONS OF DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL - POLITICAL OF CRISES IN THE MILITARIANS


Evstigneev V.

FINANSICAL SYSTEM IN RUSSIAN -TYPE TRANSITION ECONOMY: FROM UNOBSERVABLE RISKS TO RISK TRANS- PARENCY. OPERATIONS ANALYSIS


Prof. Fedotov A. Ph.D.

CONTOLLABLE WORLD MODEL FOR 2001-2025 CONSTRUCTED BY GLOBALISTICS


Florov V.

ASTRONAUTICS, COSMIC INDUSTRY OF THE EARTH: THE FIRST HALF OF THE XXI CENTURY


Gen. Frolov I., Prof. Zhouravlev A., Yahontova E. Ph.D.

RUSSIA 2001-2010: SECURITY (MILITARY - POLITICAL ASPECTS)


Prof. Ghirusov E.

RUSSIA 2010: EXPECTED AND ESIRABLE CHANGES IN A ENVIRONMENT SITUATION. TREND ANALYSIS


Golbert V.

TO NEW PARADIGM OF A CIENCE ( normative approach)


Prof. Kartashova K.

RUSSIA 2001-2050: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN URBANISATION PROCESS. EXPERTS QUESTIONNAIRE


Prof. Khwastunow R., Vedmedenko L. Ph.D.

RUSSIA 2000 - 2030: NEW BOUNDARIES IN THE CARE OF PUBLIC HEALTH (The expert prognosis on a perspective)


Prof. Kochurov B.

RUSSIA IN 2001-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE


Konstantinovskaya L. Ph.D., Prof. Afanasiev S., Prof. Feldman V., Prof. Mikhailov A., Khlystov A. Ph.D., Valchuk T. Ph.D., Kharin E. Ph.D.

RUSSIA 2001-2010. SAFETY: TREATMENT OF THE SPACE. TREND ANALYSIS


Prof. Kudrin B.

ELECTRIC POWER BALANCE IN RUSSIA (2001-2010): EXPECTED AND DESIRED CHANGES


Prof. Kuzin V.

ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AND PSYCHICAL STRUCTURES OF HUMAN BEING. PROBLEMATIQUE OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL FORECASTING


Prof. Kuznetsov I., Kozerenko E. Ph.D.

INTELLECTUAL MULTILIGUAL SYSTEM ON EXTENDED SEMANTIC NETWORKS


Prof. Levitsky M.

RUSSIAN COUNTRY SCHOOLS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE XXI CENTURY PERSPECTIVE.TREND ANALYSIS


Prof. Mironenko. N.

REALITIES AND MYTHS OF TOURISM: THEORETICAL MODELS AND PRACTICE


Nemirovski L. Ph.D.

PROBLEMS OF SHAPING THE ESOTERIC SPACE


Prof. Osipov Y.

FROM THE MICRO AND MACROECONOMICS TO THE MEGAECONOMY (GEOECONOMY)


Podgornaya. L. Ph.D.

POSSIBLE WAYS OF ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION MINIMIZATION BY CONTROL FACILITIES AT FEDERAL AND REGIONAL LEVELS. (Estimation of Prognoses on the basis of interrogation of the experts)


Prof. Poliakov V.

RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS IN EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICAL ARENA IN 2001-2010 YEARS


Pronina E., Grishayeva N., Kolesnikova E.

ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN EDUCATION OF RUSSIIA (On the base of researches carried out in the secondary schools of Moscow)


Pronina E.

ESTIMATED AND DESIRED TENDENCIES OF GROWING OF FEDERALISM IN RUSSIA (Based on the results of expert poll)


Prourzin L.

CRITICAL POINTS OF EVOLUTION HUMANITY: CENTURY XXI. TREND ANALYSIS


Shahmansky G. PhD., Alexandrov G. PhD., Smolyaninov V. PhD.

WAYS TO INCREASE OF EFFICIENCY FOR FORECAST OF NATURE DISASTROUS AND ACCIDENTS


Smolyaninov V. PhD.

WAYS TO INCREASE THE UNO EFFICIENCY. (The normative forecast)


Travkin S. Ph.D.

NEXT DECADE POSSIPLE IMPACTS OF REIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL NET-STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS. (Simulation analysis and expert judgements)


Prof. Yakovets Y.

EURASIAN CIVILISATION: CHANGES IN GEOPOLITICAL SPACE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF XXI CENTURY. ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS AND THE QUESTIONNAIRES OF EXPERTS OPINION


Prof. Yuriev A.

RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED CHANGES IN POLITICAL ONCSIOUSNESS OF RUSSIAN ELECTORATE. (Electors Questionnaire)


Prof. Bestuzhev-Lada I.

FUTURES STUDIES: PROBLEMS AND DECISIONS.

The antique tradition learns us, that all alive on ground passes cycles of birth, youth, maturity and old age. And then come death and again birth. Ancient named it as Gold, Silver, Bronze and Iron ages. Told completely concerns to a history of futures studies (FS) in the 2-nd half of century. The Gold Age of classics modern FS, in our opinion, has opened in 1952 by the book of R. Jungk "The Future has already begun" and was finished in 1970 by the book of A. Toffler "The Future Shock". This history, as always, had prehistory. To not speak about thousands years of eschatology, utopia, philosophy of a history and also about "early futurology" in the 2-nd half 1 - 1-st half centuries, we shall mention only articles in 20-s by V. A. Basarov-Rudnev, where a principle of the problem-goal approach in FS for the first time was formulated, and also about articles in 40-s by J. Bernal and N. Wiener, where the idea of the revolution in science and technology was put forward which has served a basis of ideology modern FS. But actually history began, certainly, in 50-s as the birth of technological forecasting and has terminated in 60-s by development of the theory, methodology and technology of development of the exploratory and normative forecasting completely kept till now without any essential changes and additions. The names of titans of Gold Age are well-known: R. Jungk, T. Gordon, O. Gelmer, B. de Jouvenel, D. Bell, E. Jantsch, O. Flechtheim, G. Kahn, J. Mc Hall, F. Polak, J. Galtung, A. Peccei, A. Toffler etc. They have not become outdated and to this day. The Silver Age has opened in 1972 by the book "Limits of growth" D. and D. Medows with the co-authors, which has included all first ten reports to the Club of Rome which has opened the whole special FS direction - globalistics (the analysis and the forecast of development of a global problem situation of modernity), and was finished to the beginning 80-s by the books of H. Henderson and number of other authors opened one more FS direction - alternativistics (way of transition to a civilization alternative existing and capable successfully to cope with global problems of modernity). The Bronze Age has opened in 1982 by last sensational FS bestseller - book "Megatrends" of J. Naisbitt and was finished to 90-s by transition in a new qualitative condition existing till now. It is possible to tell, that FS send as though on a high plateau, but without the further rise. Now each year leaves many books which are at all not making a concession on quality of the contents to the best products of Gold, Silver and Bronze Ages, but any more not being more any sensation, is like "Future Shock", "Limits" or "Megatrends". Probably, it really is Iron Age. How many years it will be prolonged? And than will be finished? Gradual dying , how it has taken place with many by others interdisciplinary directions of researches? Or birth of new Gold Age with the new theory, methodology, technology, with new sensations in opening the future? The technological forecasting essentially refuses in similar cases any predictions. It offers to reveal becoming ripe problems and possible ways of their decisions. What problems stand today before FS? First. The audience psychologically is tired from apocalyptic pictures of the future, which open exploratory forecasts. Yes, probably, the mankind will not go through 1 century - probably, even of the first two - three decades of it but only at the observable tendencies. This very important scientific opening, which, in our opinion, quite would deserve the Nobel premium, if these premiums were given out not only for researches of the last and present. But it cannot be repeated indefinitely, not revealing ways of an exit from crisis. Psychological effect "tearing away the information" differently turns out and FS begins to work empty. Second. The audience psychologically is tired from iridescent pictures of the future, which open the normative forecasts. Yes, everyone know that to smoke harmfully. Even more harmful alcohol and stronger drugs. Well, also what? We see growth of consumption of drugs, despite of all reasoners. Precisely as everyone know, that the squandering in consumption of energy, pollution of an environment increasing misbalance of all system of geobalances, on which the mankind keeps, threat of distribution and application of the weapon of a mass defeat (is especial microbiological), the triumphal offensive of anticulture against actually culture - that all this is very bad. A little that, is disastrous for mankind. Well, also what? Today, in 2000, we are as far from an alternative civilization, as well as in 1979, when this concept only was born. And how many years there is possible to try by naked words to put mankind into paradise? Third. The scientific FS toolkit is developed, basically, in 60-th. Since then anything essential has not increased. Well, also what? We know many sciences and interdisciplinary directions, where the scientific toolkit is created even earlier and is used without essential changes till now. Nevertheless, successes are quite real. What is necessary in FS to achieve that itself under the same conditions? On our sight, it is necessary to pay attention first of all to three possible "points of growth". 1. Not the secret, that the majority of the decisions till now is accepted intuitively, voluntarily. At first decision, then problem with consequences - common algorithm is those. Here role of FS is excluded initially. But even when the decision prepares beforehand, at first develop the decision, and then invite futurist. Naturally, the last appears in a role criticism, opponent, antagonist of the first. Certainly, the conflict is inevitable. Also occurs some kind of semi-annihilation: the "prevision maker" get rid, and the "decision maker" remains alone with consequences of the decision, planned by him. It is necessary to try to find common language between the developers of the forecasts and decisions. To not get tired to remind that any voluntary decision is always connected to excessive risk. And in modern conditions the risk even more often is risk of accident. The preparation of the decision should begin with preliminary "weighing" of its possible consequences. That makes essence of technological forecasting. At such approach the FS receive additional stimulus of development. 2. Till now problems, goals and possible decisions of a global, regional and local level in " the literature on the future" are represented mostly unsystematically, that considerably reduces such efficiency of the information. It is necessary to make accent on construction "of a tree of problems", "of a tree of the goals", "of a tree of the decisions" at all levels, from global down to local. Can be, such forecasting information will allow to lift FS on more high level. 3. The experience shows, that the disconnection of the forecasts too considerably reduces their efficiency. Can be, it is expedient more attention to give to monitoring - periodic analysis of trends and interrogations of the experts. To develop some kind of dynamic lines of the forecasts, to see their evolution and to bring in the appropriate corrective amendments. It is possible to expect, as thus level FS will be essentially raised. In sector of social forecasting in Institute of sociology Russian academy of sciences in 1991-95 and 1996-2000 on this technique two research projects were realized: "Prospects of transformation of Russia. Experts - Scenario monitoring" and "Estimated and desired changes in Russia system of national education". The experience has shown, that it is enough effectively. In 1999 the Organizational committee of the International Future Academy Research was created. It is supposed, that it will be not alternative to a World Future Society, World Futures Studies Federation and other futurists associations but rather some kind of them "affiliated organization". No any conferences or seminars, only joint research projects with information interchange through fax, e-mail, Internet, teleconference. First such project "the Countries of the world in 2001-2010: problems and decisions" is already started for January - June, 2000. There can be, it is too one of ways of removing FS on more high level of development?

HISTORY OF ACADEMY

The Forecasting Academy (Research of the Future) is one from affiliated organizations of the World Federation of Researches of the Future (status II public organizations UNO and status In advisory organizations of UNESCO). The academy of forecasting is created under the initiative of five associations and center and integrates the experts, which Study perspectives of development of various processes and phenomena.

The academy of Forecasting leans in the activity on the concept of technological forecasting (problem-target approach in researches of the future), formulated in 1924-27years. B.A.Bazarov-Rudnev and then, irrespective of him(it), in an extremity 50-th and beginning of the 60-th years O.Gelmer, T.Gordon, D.Bell, A. De Guvenel etc. future-contributors. The academy develops prognostic traditions incorporated in transactionses N.D.Kondratiev, V.I.Vernadskiy,K.E.Ziolkovskiy, A.P.Sorokin,L.A.Chigevskiy etc.

In Russia three attempts of creation public (outside of State) of scientific organization of the theorists and practic of forecasting were undertaken. The first attempt - 1966-70 years. - the Soviet association of scientific forecasting was created which collected monthly - seminars with hundreds participants, issue a number of issuings etc. She(it) was destroy in 1970-71years., and it the chiefs destroy. The second attempt began by informal seminars in the Moscow Air institute, that has reduced in creation in a 1976 of a Commission on scientific and technical forecasting in one from committees of All-Union Advice(council) of scientific and technical companies (VSNTO).

In a 1979 the commission was developed in Committee on scientific and technical forecasting and development of comprehensive programmes of scientific and technical progress VSNTO (Then Advice(council) of scientific and engineering companies USSR) in structure more than ten commissions: under the theory and methodology of forecasting, on social, economic, ecological, global problems of forecasting. Formally Committee exists until now, and actually USSR is paralysed by a ruin.

The third attempt began in 1988-90 years. By seminars of Association of assistance of the World Federation of Researches of the Future (President . I.V.Bestuzhev-Lada, academician of the Russian Academy of Science) and Association the prognosises and cycles (President - professor U.V.Yakovez) also was finished in 1996 by cooperation of these organizations with Research Center " Applied prognostic " and " by Association of the financial analysts and forecastings" (Director of centre and president of Association - member of MAI U.V.Sidelnikov), with " by Center Cocil of Values " (director - professor - M. Mazkovskiy), with International Fund N.D.Kondratiev (president - academician of WOUNDS L.I.Abalkin) and with St.-Petersburg humanitarian and politicial by centre "Strategy" (president - professor. A. Sungurov).

Now the cooperation with Academy of Forecasting (Researches of the Future) is entered by(with) other known scientific and public organizations of Russia.

Today Academy of Forecasting works on forty main directions of scientific forecasting and represents cooperation of the experts in an orb of forecasting. Including in Academy of forecasting exists and esoteric a direction of researches of the future.


Prof. Antonov A., Medkov V. EXPECTED PARAMETERS OF DEMOGRAPHIC BALANCE OF RUSSIA: 2000-2010-2020-2030-2040-2050. TREND ANALYSIS. The future tendencies of fertility, mortality, reproduction of the population. Minimally possible and most probable variants of depopulation, migratory balance and factors promoting the further decrease of fertility (including a role of practice of compulsory measures and interdictions of a different sort), or assisting - through active profamily policy - increase of number of births in family up to the level necessary for extended reproduction of the population with the purposes of elimination for a loss of number of the peoples of Russia. Tel. (095) 939-5060


Prof. Azroyants E. FROM MICRO- AND MACRO- TOWARDS MEGA-SOCIUM. ESTIMATED PROGRESS IN PROCESS OF A HUMANITY GLOBALIZATUION IN XXI CENTURY. TREND ANALYSIS. Globalization - criterion function of historical process directed on achievement to boundary integrity of social system; the tendencies determining its dynamics, - integration and disintegration. The analysis of process globalization: retrospective review; phases, structure, regularities. A present stage of globalization - internationalization. The false interpretations turn to dangerous political ambitions. The main strategic direction of West and, first of all USA, - westernization, as the global project of the universal order. Global civilization's crisis determined, first of all, by condition of the international financial market with uncontrollable degrees of freedom and tectonics' potential, with not appropriate to the real bases and scales growth of the free capital (on the order is higher than requirements of real economy), as preparation of phase transition macrosocium in a new condition. Architecture of global political space. Transition to regional integration and mechanisms of overnational management. The projects of the future. Tel. (095) 128-9014
Prof. Balsevitch V. DYNAMICS OF SOCIAL EFFICIENCY IN PHYSICAL TRAINING OF RUSSIAN CHILDREN, TEENAGERS, YOUTH. Forecasting Grounding of an Social Experiment. The state of health of children, teenagers, and youth in Russia requires a fundamental improving of physical training in the school and in the university. Traditional "physical culture lessons" did not show any desired effect. That is why a search on some new, more effective forms of junction up to the most higher physical culture standards is in progress. There is proposed a system of gymnastic exercises ('aerobics" etc) before and after lessons as well as during interval between lessons, and also some attractive sport games, plus body-building by trenagers. The experience shows, that all this is very constructive, but for promotion of such approach there is necessary a forecasting grounding, i.e. evaluation of possible consequences of any new forms of sports in a school. Tel. (095) 166-3941
Batyaeva A., Aukutsionek S. EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES IN AN INVESTMENT ACTIVITY OF THE RUSSIAN ENTERPRISES FOR A LONG - TERM PROSPECT. EXPERT QUESTIONNAIRE. The trends of changes in the investment activity of the Russian enterprises for a medium- term prospect while taking the factors exerting an influence upon the scope and efficiency of investments into account (these factors are as follows: a demand for products, results of the economic activity, a technical equipment, types of products, a scope of the state participation, sources of financing activity, a level of competition and a situation in the markets). The trends of forming a market model of an investment activity of the enterprises of RF. Tel(095) 128-8105
Prof. Bestuzhev-Lada I. RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN STATE OF CULTURE INSTITUTIONS. EXPERT QUESTIONNAIRE. There is studied a problem situation formed to the end of the XX. Century in all 12 basic types of culture institutions: books-magazines-newsletter editions, TV and radio, cinema and theater, club, museum, public library, luna-park, sports. All these institutions even in period of the USSR existence or rather during of mass transition in 60-70-s from a traditional rural way of life to a modern urban one, began to come to a state of crisis with danger of a catastrophe. In 90-s it turned into a quality new problem situation. It is important to understand specifications of this situation on a long perspective and make clear possible ways of its overcoming. Tel. (095) 128-1710
Prof. Breyev B. SUSPOSED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN THE EMPLOYMENT STRUCTURE RF IN 2001-2010. ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND AN INTERROGATION OF EXPERTS. The trends of changes in the employment structure of Russia for the prospects of the nearest decade while taking the results of the scientific and technological revolution into account and transforming the knowledge into a decisive resource of production and the trends of the progress of the international division of labour. The trends of changes of the scales of an evident and hidden unemployment while taking the factors into account which favour the growth of the unemployment or, just on the contrary, the fall of its level. An analysis of the real opportunities of an optimisation of the production structure in the society with a minimisation of an evident and hidden unemployment. Tel. (095) 332-4304
Breyeva E. DrSc. CHILDREN OF RUSSIA TODAY AND 10 YEARS LATER. TREND ANALYSIS AND PANEL INQUEST. An analysis of qualitative characteristics of children (health, education, upbringing), mutual relations in a family, an attitude towards children in the Russian society. While proceeding from the contemporary trends, the following rather complicated by its form scenario is the most probable one. In the first stage it is characterized with a growth of a sick rate, a greater leaving from schools, a greater number of children who do not work and study, a growth of an indigence, criminality, narcotism and prostitution. This situation may lead to a lowering of the labour potential of the country, an impossibility of a reinforcement of the army and owing to these facts it will change the attitude of the State towards the children's problem and first of all through a growth of the share of GNP for their needs. Just then the second, optimistic stage of our scenario will come true. Tel. (095) 460-3351
Bunchuk K., Vasilansky I., Matushkin V. RUSSIA IN 2000-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES THE CONSCIOUSNESS OF PEOPLE. Methods of research : Questioning of experts, public opinion poll and content-analysis of mass-media. Transition to the market economics is impossible without psychological reorientation of notions, values and norms of life which were formed. This transition is determined by the change of consciousness. The new level of life which people aspire to will be achieve if their consciousness changes. If reforms continue in the near future as now the change of level of consciousness and being will not happen. If reforms are directed at forming of attitudes, values and norms of people, consciousness of people will change in the near 10-15 years and being will be able to turn into new level. Tel. (812) 355-0329
Dobrocheev O., Sidelnikov Y. Ph.D. INTEGRATION AND DESINTEGRATION PROCESSES IN EUROPE WITHIM THE FRAMEWORK OF POLITICAL GLOBALISATION. The global hum noise, new in a world (global) history, strengthens integration processes and loosens desintegration. For want of certain circumstances it(he) even is capable to change vector of european integration - with Euroatlantic on Euroasian. Rudiments by this the tendency is looked through in the last Yugoslavian conflict. From this zone of southern Europe, under our judgement, second can begin, for the last 100 years, wave of the Euroasian integration. You see it the first splash of a sample of a 1914, was marked by creation existing about 20 years of League of Nations. In considered natural scientific a context of a problem, the perspectives of largest Euroasian Russia and located close epicenter of integration of Italy are rather interesting because without them the steady-state path of political development of continent is impossible. Tel. (095) 128-1978
Dobrocheev O. DUNAMIC CHARACTERISTICS AND THRESHOLD RESTRICTIONS OF DEVELOPMENT SOCIAL - POLITICAL OF CRISES IN THE MILITARIANS. The author managed to detect in centenary dynamics(changes) of an index Dou Jones universal properties it originally of only market indicator. The approximation of this parameter to some "critical" significances in particular established (installed), that, is accompanied by wars, revolutions and social catastrophe. In similar poorly-adjusted, as a matter of fact very close to "random" conditions, the socio economic situation appears dependent, as speak mathematics, from circumstances " of the second order of a smallness ". I.e. dependent from external, in relation to policy, factors of enclosing life and nature. On this basis for modelling (simulation) of the crisis social phenomena it is offered to use physical spatially - temporary models and regularities of development of social conflicts in the militarians. Tel. (095) 128-1978
Evstigneev V. FINANSICAL SYSTEM IN RUSSIAN -TYPE TRANSITION ECONOMY: FROM UNOBSERVABLE RISKS TO RISK TRANSPARENCY. OPERATIONS ANALYSIS. The author considers tendencies towards self-organization of the Russian financial market in the decade to come, with regard to the evolution of the global financial market. The central issue of the chapter is the problem of transfer from unobservable "invisible" risks to calculable risks liable to direct assessment, in the situation of relative openness of the national financial system. The problem is raised of prospects of organizational and institutional reform of the Russian financial system. Tel. (095) 128-1978
Prof. Fedotov A. Ph.D. CONTOLLABLE WORLD MODEL FOR 2001-2025 CONSTRUCTED BY GLOBALISTICS. Globalistics as a science deals with the beyond-the-limits world. One must introduce the control mechanism of the world so as to stop its spontaneous destruction and make it sustainable. Globalistics it constructs the three-element world model (biosphere, countries as a whole and separate country) and describes the interaction between these elements with the system of generalized parameters. The world becomes controllable in principle. The parameters have been computed for 126 countries. Quantitative criteria have been introduced into the conceptions of the sustainable development and noosphere. The purpose of the project is the development of the ideas of author's book "Introduction to Globalistics. Outline of the Modern World" (1999). Tel. (095) 315-6257
Gen. Frolov I., Prof. Zhouravlev A., Yahontova E. Ph.D. RUSSIA 2001-2010: SECURITY (MILITARY - POLITICAL ASPECTS). rospecting and parametric prognoses on the basis of the analysis of situation game model and expert prognoses: 1. Prognostic scenarios: "NATO - 2010". 2. Physical approach towards conflict prognostication. 3. Modelling scenarios: "from an opposition to a partnership". 4. Prophilaxis of acts of terrorism. 5. Analysis of probable consequences of armed conflicts and their elimination. Tel. (095) 513-4750
Prof. Ghirusov E. RUSSIA 2010: EXPECTED AND ESIRABLE CHANGES IN A ENVIRONMENT SITUATION. TREND ANALYSIS. The trend analysis and optimization. In 2000-2010 the deterioration of environment situation in Russia is expected that the economic difficulties will be overcome at the expense of increasing operation and export of natural resources down to their complete exhaustion. The large cities will especially suffer as a result of prompt growth of the autos, which majority does not answer the standards, accepted in the advanced countries. Measures necessary for improvement for environment situation: Transition from practice of burning or burial of waste to that processing and utilization at the specially constructed factories. Wide use of renewed sources of energy instead of fuel as obviously ecologically dangerous and economically prodigal The primary attention mass media to ecological problems and is especial to scientific and technical opportunities of environment crisis overcoming. Tel. (095) 128-1710, 434-1504
Golbert V. TO NEW PARADIGM OF A CIENCE ( Normative approach). Scientific paradigm is characterized, first of all, dominant world outlook, what materialism in the simplified - dogmatically sort now is. At the same time, she covers also number of other important units installing the order, ways and directions of realization of researches. Complete structure and contents of these units till now completely are not defined and are realized at an intuitive level. All ways of knowledge of the world and persons who are not adequate accepted scientific paradigm, are ranked as a rank not scientific. Creation in century on the basis of newest scientific opening of technologies, which have resulted the world on a side of resource exhausting and ecological catastrophe, rough development of a shadow science, which results the official science does not recognize and declares beforehand not scientific, mismatch of resources, put in a science, to received results testify that the modern science has left from correct path of the development, that is it are required revising existing scientific paradigm, systematization, ordering and new judgment of its making units. . (095)161-6298
Prof. Kartashova K. RUSSIA 2001-2050: ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN URBANISATION PROCESS. EXPERTS QUESTIONNAIRE. A. The rating of the tendency of a further concentration of the population in large and largest cities, megalopolises at desirability deconcentrating of arrangement disposition of settlements and greater spreading of small members of settling, approximated to agricultural resources and power sources providing pedestrian accessibility of places of a work, household activities and rest. B. The rating of the tendency of a further concentration of the population of our country in southern and south-west locales at desirability is possible of more dense settlement of northern and eastern locales. C. The rating of the tendency to settle of more and more considerable fraction of the population in multi-storey houses (9-25 levels) at desirability of building one-two-levels of personal houses and cottages with all modern convenience (engineering maintenance) and lot of earth. Tel., fax: (095) 242-4774
Prof. Khwastunow R., Vedmedenko L. Ph.D. RUSSIA 2000 - 2030: NEW BOUNDARIES IN THE CARE OF PUBLIC HEALTH. (The expert prognosis on a perspective). 1. The Role of the medical - managers will increase in importance. They' reveal all possible directions in the field of the improvement of our medical service. Their work should provide a considerable rise in its quality in the particular CPI (offices of prophylactic treatment) 2. The following new biological technologies will have a significant impact on the potential changes of all principles of medical treatment, these are: the transplantation or the recovery of the injured organs and tissues by influencing them in the genetic level. It should downplay the role of the medicinal methods or other therapeutics. 3. The special influence in the genetic level and a continuos individual monitoring will bring health and lifelong somatic youth to our society's elite. 4. The subagent reduction of the Russian indigenous population will set the problem of a sharp increase in the number of other people coming to territory. Tel. (095) 210-3642
Prof. Kochurov B. RUSSIA IN 2001-2010: EXPECTED AND DESIRABLE CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL BALANCE. Three forecast scenarios of the development of environmental situations in Russia are considered: the technology remains unchanged, technologies become the resource saving and environmentally sound, human impact is practically eliminated. In the first forecast scenario the existing environmental areas and the level of their criticality are increasing (over 20% of its area) followed by further disturbance of the ecological-economic balance, in the second scenario the environmental situation either stabilize or improves, in the third scenario no significant improvement of the environmental situation occurs due to the inertia of natural process and the long time of self-restoration. Spatial (landscape) planning and establishment of the new ecological spatial structures, geoecosociosystems, based on the principles of harmony and balance, is a promising line allowing for significant improvement of the state of natural environment and the ecological-economic balance in Russia. Tel./fax: (095) 238-25-44, e-mail: inecol@rc.msu.ru
Konstantinovskaya L. Ph.D., Prof. Afanasiev S., Prof. Feldman V.,Prof. Mikhailov A., Khlystov A. Ph.D., Valchuk T. Ph.D., Kharin E. Ph.D. RUSSIA 2001-2010. SAFETY: TREATMENT OF THE SPACE. TREND ANALYSIS. Expected influence over the Earth surface of Solar activity (SA), orbital positions of the Moon, planets, comets, asteroids, meteorite floods of the Solar system in 2001-2010. The probability estimate of collisions with the Earth surface of differently scaled cosmic solids in 2001-2010 (in particular of Russia). The analysis of cyclical influence over the Earth surface of cosmic factors, particularly in period of 2001-2010 (including Russia). Tel. (095) 454-7643
Prof. Kudrin B. ELECTRIC POWER BALANCE IN RUSSIA (2001-2010): EXPECTED AND DESIRED CHANGES. A. Status evaluation and tendencies of electric power provision by regions, types of consumers complemented with the generating power structure distribution characteristic. B. Status evaluation and tendencies of for city forming enterprises, industrial and other organizations including the ones belonging to small locust castes. C. Expected and desired provision of regions with electric power in terms of vitality of consumers, power systems and investments efficiency. D. Technocoenological forecasting of power consumption parameters for Russia, separate regions, city forming enterprises and a locust set of small enterprises and organizations. Tel.: (095) 215-2870, e-mail: bkdrinbio@glasnet.ru
Prof. Kuzin V. ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN PHYSICAL AND PSYCHICAL STRUCTURES OF HUMAN BEING. PROBLEMATIQUE OF ANTHROPOLOGICAL FORECASTING. TREND ANALYSIS. Observed changes in state of physical and psychical health of population due transition from a traditional rural way of life to a modern urban one. An objective necessity of correction of this state by means of medicine, physical culture and sports. A problem of the goal oriented intervention in the formation of physical and psychical human structures according prefixed criteria which we must elaborate. The beginning process of a personality cyborgisation due appearance of pharmacology of a quality new generation, possibilities of constructing artificial organs for human body and computer miniaturization which allows to change it into a quality new artificial human organ regulating life activity according given parameters also are to be elaborated. Trend analysis in this relation allows to comprehend this process much deeper . Tel. (095) 166-4274
Prof. Kuznetsov I., Kozerenko E. Ph.D. INTELLECTUAL MULTILIGUAL SYSTEM ON EXTENDED SEMANTIC NETWORKS. For providing successful communication an intelligent natural language understanding system is proposed which provides interaction with knowledge bases and databases, expert systems, information retrieval systems, etc. The system supports acquisition and subsequent exchange of knowledge presented in different languages. The system users can range from trained knowledge engineers to users without any background in programming. It has its own Knowledge Base (KB) which is independent from the input languages. A series of applications have been implemented via this system. One of these is the full text knowledge base of politological forecasts. Tel. (095) 128-1978
Prof. Levitsky M. RUSSIAN COUNTRY SCHOOLS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF THE XXI CENTURY PERSPECTIVE.TREND ANALYSIS. Trends of country schools' status change in a 25 years' outlook, considering all aspects of life change in the country, migration, employment restructure, depopulation, computerization of manufacture. (Comment: nearly 70% of all schools of the Russian Federation are country schools) Real possibilities of these trends' optimization under such criteria as physical and mental condition, as well as intellectual level of the new generation. Tel. (095) 286-8597
Prof. Mironenko. N. REALITIES AND MYTHS OF TOURISM: THEORETICAL MODELS AND PRACTICE. Factors determining tourist needs and demand. Survey of tourist motivation theories: migration instinct, "Homo Ludens", concepts of homeostasis (including ones of geographical stress and marginal condition). Social and personal levels of using environment in leisure by B.B.Rodoman. Evolution of theoretical models of recreation activity. Current world trends in tourism including Russia. Resource and infrastructure base of Russia for tourism. Myths of tourism and territory development. Consequences of tourism development. Tel. (095) 939-3631
Nemirovski L. Ph.D. PROBLEMS OF SHAPING THE ESOTERIC SPACE. Study of objective and subjective possibilities to shape the Esoteric Space of man and society with the methods of Holodynamics (transforming the image of the problem in such a way that to help effectively its solving). The aim is also helped with the technology of Relive (correcting the image of the problem as it existed in the past). The ultimate aim of the study is to give man an improved ability to shape his individual future. Tel. (095) 917-3356
Prof. Osipov Y. FROM THE MICRO AND MACROECONOMICS TO THE MEGAECONOMY (GEOECONOMY). Megaeconomy - is not only world (planet) economy, it is a system of the economic - financial regulation, controlling and managing the world economic processes. If earlier world economy was an arena for the sovereign states acting, now it is autonomous subject, operating at the field of the national economies. Economy is changing it's internal contents, frames of the former sense constructions are already tight for it. It began to reveal itself not only as a mode of economic activity, but also as a dominating system managing society: as a policy, and even ideology of the coming epoch, became by it essence a new power system of coordinates. As a result used geopolitical imperatives give up their place to the geoeconomic realities which subordinated management of not only the planet resources, but also all economic activity on it, distribution and redistribution of the aggregate world income. Frames of the micro and macroeconomics being are destroying. Value is modifying, prices estimations are qualitatively changing, basic factors are weakening, it's trend beginning is strengthening. All this are evidences of the new ruling economic mode that has formed in the world - geofinancial economy. Economic theory have to take into consideration this transformations at the world economy. Tel. (095) 932-0397
Podgornaya. L. Ph.D. POSSIBLE WAYS OF ENVIRONMENT POLLUTION MINIMIZATION BY CONTROL FACILITIES AT FEDERAL AND REGIONAL LEVELS. (Estimation of Prognoses on the basis of interrogation of the experts). Estimation of the basic tendencies of development of the usual ecological situation in Russia, definitions of zones of ecological risk of a federal and regional level, research of the basic parameters of ecological risk. Definition of possible and desirable norm of development of an ecological situation. Measures offered the experts on radical improvement of ecological balance of Russia means of purposeful ecological policy. Typicalness of the offered decisions. Estimation of Prognoses their potential. Creation of system of administrative measures on optimization of ecological balance at a federal and regional level. Tel. (095) 963-9078
Prof. Poliakov V. RUSSIAN OIL AND GAS IN EUROPEAN GEOPOLITICAL ARENA IN 2001-2010 YEARS. Method :Search and information prognosis on the basis of trend analysis and experts' opinion pool. Tendencies of the Russian oil and gas export to the European countries for the current decade ( min, max, and most probable variants) with regards to main development factors of world energy resources markets, dynamics of long term supply and demand, as well as specifics of the economy development of some respective countries including Russia. Evaluation of influence of the Russian energy resources supply on the European countries with regards to their economical security and overall political stability on the European continent under resolution of some crisis situations in the relations with Russia and other CIS countries. Tel. (095) 174-5533
Pronina E., Grishayeva N., Kolesnikova E. ESTIMATED AND DESIRED CHANGES IN EDUCATION OF RUSSIIA (on the base of researches carried out in the secondary schools of Moscow). The research has been carried out during 1996-2000. In the course of the research there have been used the following methodologies: the method of the included investigation and the content-analysis of mass-media, a daily and correspondence polling of experts, parents and schoolchildren. There have been investigated the state and the problems of reforming the system of education in Russia. Tel. (095) 128-6901
Pronina E. ESTIMATED AND DESIRED TENDENCIES OF GROWING OF FEDERALISM IN RUSSIA (based on the results of expert poll). The given research is carrying out within the frames of the project "Perspectives of improving of the federalism growing mechanisms". The head of the project is The terms of the project realization - 1999-2003. The methods used a content analysis of mass media, a half-formalized interview, a daily and correspondence poll of experts. The experts are the deputies of the State Duma, Constitutional Court of the Russian Federation and Constitutional Court of the Republics, lawyers being engaged in the problems of the state building, the scientists - investigators and politicians-practicians from different regions of Russia. Tel. (095) 128-8601
Prourzin L. CRITICAL POINTS OF EVOLUTION HUMANITY: CENTURY XXI. TREND ANALYSIS. Base of problems - new conditions of existence, model of development and the being available resources generate a limit which is referring to as with a critical point of evolution of Humanity. During an operation a critical point the choice of a path of development is possible. The prognosis: 1. Limit possibilities of modern technologies and problems of optimum of technological structures. 2. Limit of an inconsistency and completeness. Revolution in mathematician. 3. Limit aggravation of an ecological situation and the problem of qualitative new ecological balance. 4. Crisis seven existing forms of public consciousness (world outlook, science, art, moral, right, policy, faith) and necessity new paradigms. 5. Limits of the observed tendency of growth of production and consumption of energy. The problem of qualitative new power balance. 6. Limits of a controllability of development of mental and physical appearance of the person, and also intelligence of the person. A problem of coexistence the person and cyber-man. 7. Limit of development or "Drake's formula for society". Paradoxes of solutions. Tel., fax: (253) 2-28-96, (253) 7-67-92.Temporary (095)737-70-81, E-mail: lu@izmailovo.ru.

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Shahmansky G. PhD., Alexandrov G. PhD., Smolyaninov V. PhD. WAYS TO INCREASE OF EFFICIENCY FOR FORECAST OF NATURE DISASTROUS AND ACCIDENTS. The specialized information technology containing retrostatistics of accidents, monitoring of the current events, comparative expert ratings, forecast of necessary measures. Development of principles of address forecasting in view of the saved experience of overcoming of accidents, also current technical reserves and effective technologies. Creation of computer system in the Internet network for service of the independent experts on all kinds of disasters and accidents with granting of any help information. Geographical mapping and ranging of regions of the increased danger (radiological, chemical, technical, natural), items of means of protection and saving services. Creation of the network Internet manager for operative information service of objects of disasters and monitoring of rendering assistance by the injured to the people and objects. Tel. (095) 128-1710
Smolyaninov V. PhD. WAYS TO INCREASE THE UNO EFFICIENCY. (The normative forecast). 1. Creation of the Uniform Constitution for all countries - on the basis of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. 2. Unification of the state forms of political management - on the basis of the presidential form with division of powers of legislative, executive and judicial branches of authority. 3. Unification of political culture of governments - on the basis of the International School of the Presidents, highest international educational institution under UN, intended for professional training of the staff of state management for the different countries. 4. Unification of legislative activity - on a basis of international scientific researches of the federal and regional sociological problems. 5. Formation of mass Human Rights Culture - main guarantee of the international safety. Tel. (095) 128-1710
Travkin S. Ph.D. NEXT DECADE POSSIPLE IMPACTS OF REIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL NET-STRUCTURE DEVELOPMENTS. (Simulation analysis and expert judgements). The dangerous changes in economics and social systems liable for cybernetic conflicts and information warfare, leading to a serious alteration of social values and thus giving rise to a new type of culture are discussed. Problems of expulsion of human factors from industry by robots, bio-robots and computers and new paradigms of economic and military warfare with minimal human involvement are considered. Tel. (095) 203-9705
Prof. Yakovets Y. EURASIAN CIVILISATION: CHANGES IN GEOPOLITICAL SPACE IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF XXI CENTURY. ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS AND THE QUESTIONNAIRES OF EXPERTS OPINION. The appreciation of the tendencies to changes of the geopolitical position of Russia as in Eurasian civilisation as in the interaction with the civilisations of West and East in the process of the globalisation of post-industrial society and the formation of forth generation of the local civilisation. The discovery of the possible centres of the intercivilizational conflicts and giving the recommendations of their prevention. The influence of the development in cycles of the global and regional processes on the geopolitical position of Russia in Eurasian civilisation in the first quarter of XXI century: scenarios and their consequences. Tel. (095) 953-8102

Prof. Yuriev A. RUSSIA 2001-2010: ESTIMATED CHANGES IN POLITICAL ONCSIOUSNESS OF RUSSIAN ELECTORATE. (Electors Questionnaire). The problem situation: a gap between the existing consciousness of Russian electorate and possibilities of a higher level and quality of life achieving, which can be realized by a higher level of social concsiousness. Hence a task arouses: fixing level of consciousness and self-concsiousness of citizens, social groups, and society at a whole evaluation, which is necessary for exploration of desired changes in this relation. An appropriate questionnaire is planned, on wich base there will be elaborated a technology of groups and inter-groups relations,values,and norms psycho-diagnostique. Tel. (812) 973-1549